“The results of the South African election have left the ANC weaker than it has ever been. Gone are the days when the ANC’s chosen leader was almost certainly destined to become the next president of South Africa. But [ Jacob] Zuma is in a stronger position because he has shown that he has a huge personal following that doesn’t depend on his membership of the ANC. [President Cyril] Ramaphosa, on the other hand, can’t claim such authority; he has been utterly humiliated as the ANC leader on whose watch the party of Madiba lost its governing majority. Zuma’s supporters mock Ramaphosa as “Mr. 40 percent,” a reference to the ANC’s failure to hit the 50 percent mark it needed to stay firmly in control of South Africa’s government. Zuma’s MK had said one condition of joining hands with the ANC would have been the ouster of Ramaphosa as president, a clear indicator that, even though Ramaphosa has kept his post, he is vulnerable and instability is not far away.”

“[Salim] Saleh, whose real name is Caleb Akandwanaho, has come a long way. In nearly four decades he has outgrown a perception of him as the president’s rascally brother to emerge as the most influential power broker, bar none, in a government that now finds itself trying to figure out how to retain power when [President Yoweri] Museveni inevitably goes … In fact, as some have suggested, Saleh’s deep and well-built network within the NRM government runs parallel to – but works closely with – the state, reinforcing NRM rule but also placing Saleh in a position of such authority that some analysts see him as a co-president while others see him as a consigliere looming in the background.”

“In death Nyerere’s halo has continued to grow, and there have been no damaging revelations about him … His Chama Cha Mapinduzi party remains on the same course he set for it: the smooth transition of power within the ruling party, for as long as possible, so that even when John Magufuli died unexpectedly in office, his deputy Samia Suluhu was inaugurated without incident in 2021 as Tanzania’s first female president. Thus, in a narrow political sense, Nyerere has had enough followers to cement his legacy at home. What’s in doubt is his relevance for Africans elsewhere, among leaders like Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni who may praise Nyerere while having little use for Nyerereism.”

“Inevitably, as was the case under [Idi] Amin and even Milton Obote, Ugandans are increasingly concerned by what they consider a slide toward full-blown military authoritarianism, by a palpable fear of what happens next. The scale of abuses has intensified with the rise of Bobi Wine. Some of his supporters have been picked from their homes at night by security agents who shove their victims into vans that Ugandans have described, terrifyingly, as “drones,” apparently because of the speed with which they are driven away from crime scenes. Some of those released from detention tell harrowing stories: fingernails torn out, bodies burned with hot metal, and other abuses too violent to mention here … [T]hese cruel acts of torture reveal current truths about the Museveni regime, show the government as it is. These are the political remains of the NRM, as raw and bitter as a poisonous plant.”